- October 29, 2012
The victory of social democrats and strong opposition
First-pass-the-post-voting elections signed and sealed politics in Lithuania. Certain but not so strong victory got social democrats and they are going to be architects of new left-to-the centre and populists coalition. That coalition is going to be build up on the foundation of Labour Party. Previous right to the centre party is going to stay in a strong opposition. New government of Lithuania is going to have seven parties. Among those parties three mentioned above will have the biggest role but stability of the government and the strength of the opposition will decide another three parties which are going to establish their own politics’ clubs called fractions. For the first time in the new history of Lithuania EAPL will have its own political fraction.
Second round of the elections and in elections to the Seym succeeded parties which are usually winning. After the first part of elections social democrats got 15 seats after the second part they could add 23 – together 38, from the third place on second one went previous ruling party Christian democracy with 33 seats after the second round. The third place got the winner of the first part Labour party with 29 seats. It means that without the Labour Party there could only be established “rainbow” coalition with the participants of left-of-the-centre and right-of the-centre part of the government and is unlikely to happen.
Again at the post-election night had place a meeting of the leaders of three parties. Those parties were in opposition until now but now those parties are going to establish new ruling coalition. Social democrats and Uspaskich have together 67 seats in a whole Seym which counts 141 seats. The majority in the Seym with social democrats and Uspaskich should give the party of the dismissed president “ the order and law”. That party got 11 seats and opens second trio of Seym Parties. 78 seats of new coalition means breakable ascendance especially when majority of coalition are populists. Guarantee of the stability of new government can give only fourth partner from the rest trio.
Fifth place was taken with ten seats by Ruch Liberałów – the only party which is stricte liberal and was able to pass the threshold. In the end of the cadence the liberals co-ruled with conservatives and Christian democrats and probably they will be with them in opposition. But it is not out of the question that new government might want to have the adhesion of the liberals. Liberals as a part of new coalition might give the authority but it is not known how the voters of Liberals could stand the relationship of liberals with left-of-the-centre and populists. Besides the role of stability it is not perfect for the leaders of Ruch Liberałow, who are able to wait in opposition for better conjecture.
Seemingly easier “prey” for new coalition might be Polish EAPL, which with eight seats presents really good on the background of the second trio in the Seym. For sure it will not be so challenging as Liberals and not so uncomfortable as radical party called Droga Odwagi by Neringa Venckien. That party is the great unknown because they debuted during the disaffection of society. There was not enough votes to get at least one seat in the second part of the election and Venckiene will have to think it over if she wants to be a part of some new fraction( the establishment of new fraction is possible with 8 seats and the party of Venckiene has only seven of them).
EAPL and the party of Venckiene connects only one thing. It is the awareness of the fact that they succeeded by passing the threshold and might stay in isolation if they do not become a part of the ruling coalition. EAPL will not join the liberal – right-of the centre opposition. In the case of the party of Venckiene in it is possible that this party might come apart if it stays aback of the Seym. Starting today the first three parties will start their “hunt” for three autonomous deputies and one deputy of Zwiazek Chlopow I Zielonych Litwy. With Zieloni Litwy EAPL have wanted to cooperate EAPL after election but the party of Ramunas Karbaukis did not pass the threshold. Is it possible to invite that one deputy of Zieloni Litwy the party of EAPL? For EAPL it is always more nine seats more than eight.
What are the relations of Poles with Other parties from New coalition? Undoubtedly , Poles have the Best relationships with social-democrats. Although, it is hard to say about the Post-communists as xenophobes with Poles. But theirs xenophobia is the lowest it was showed by the co-operation of two deputies of EAPL with the governments of Gedminas Kirkilas in years 2006-2008. Theoretically, Uspaskich has nothing to say about Poles and its postures but in this case it is impossible to say about the brotherhood between Bohemians and native minorities. At the bottom of the Labour Party’s pyramid, there are many different nationalities for example, Zwiazek Litwy Rosjan which is very competitive for EAPL. The Labour Party cannot afford on showing off with the sympathy to Poles
The most complicated relations are between Paksas and EAPL even though they do not look like. Paksas was first Lithuanian leader who co-operated with EAPL and in the end of 90’s and beginning of 2000 was a mayor of Vilnius and later a prime – minister and president of Lithuania. His party made an ideological circle in last ten years. from being right-to-the-centre and the liberal to finish with being aggrieved with a strong nationalist voice. Formally, the Poles continued co-operation with dismissed president and the deputies belonged the party of The Law and Order but lately differences between those two parties are coming out, some comments of Lithuanians from PIS have just not leaving any doubts about the relations between parties.
A new prime – minister of Lithuania will be probably the leader of social – democrats : Algirdas Butkevičius. Does it mean that the president’s seat of the Seym will belong to Viktorowi Uspaskich.
The leader of the Labour Party only mentions about leading one department of state and a leader of the third party from coalition – Rolandas Paksas says about coming back to the European parliament. Even though he was forbidden to start in elections by the Constitutional Council. New hand in the deck of Politicians is still in front of us and as one politologist – Lauras Bielinis says for sure there are going to be surprises. And for example one of the vice presidents for Lithuanian Seym might speak with a polich accent, which can be a good sign of Lithuanian’s development. Those Lithuanian who still think in a provincial way about Lithuanian as a country without citizens with different citizenships.
Is it possible that Lithuanian brothers are finally feeling good with Poles in the Seym and now they are ready to accept them in the government? I would like to see how members of new coalitions are giving fives to the ex President Rolandas Paksas and the ex president of the Seym who were the main ringleader and the executor of the impeachment of Paksas. Then he promoted Uspaskich and now he came back to the Seym on the list of Labour Party which is leaded by Paksas. There is nothing what could amaze me in this Politics
Tłumaczenie Karolina Przybyło w ramach praktyk w Europejskiej Fundacji Praw Człowieka, www.efhr.eu. Translated by Karolina Przybyło the framework of a traineeship programme of the European Foundation of Human Rights, www.efhr.eu.