- October 15, 2012
Radczenko: Welcome into not so New political reality.
After four years of savings, cuts in the budget, lowering the wages and retirements voters said goodbye to a ruling coalition established from conservatives and liberals. However, the prognosis are not so absolutely. There is a gate that allows the politics from that coalition for comeback.
The greatest surprise of Sunday’s election was good result of now ruling the conservatives and the Ruch Liberalow Party. That surprise was even greater than the victory of The labour party and social-democrats and outpassed the threshold by EAPL.
Social democrats predominated.
After the first run of the elections in plurality voting system Labour Party is on the first place. But right after the group of Wiktor Uspaskich on the second place are social democrats. Difference between those two places is equal to about one percent. There are no doubts that social democrats will improve their position in the race for parliament’s seats in the second run of the elections. The second run will have its place in two weeks’ time and after the second run the winners in part of election in plurality voting system will be chosen . also, during the second time the winners from the first win the post voting system will be chosen. The left of the centre – Labour Party has a strong back up cadre-organization in terrain and many well-known charismatic leaders which might win in most of districts in the first-win-of-post-voting system. The popularity of the party has its root on the personal charisma and popularity of the leader Mr. Wiktor Uspaskich. There are no doubts that in two weeks’ time the social democrats are going to have the most number of people in the Seym fraction and will delegate its leader of Mr. Algirdas Butkevicius for a position of prime minister who’s lack of the charisma was the reason for the worse result of social democrats in the first run.(unless Mr. Wiktor Uspaskich will not make any arrangements with conservatives.)
The Winners – conservatives.
Związek Ojczyzny-Litewscy Chrześcijańscy Demokraci of Andrius Kubilius Can tell about luck. The least liked prime minister got with its political party third place in pre-electoral run. The difference between his party and the second was really low. In comparison with the result from 2008 the party lost a few numbers of votes. This success might be equal with the success of the right of centered prime minister Validis Dombrovskis who became a prime minister for the third time in Latvia. Andrius Kubilus has also a chance to become a prime minister. There are two challengers for this seat: Mr. Kubilus and Mr. Butkevičius who will be the next prime minister depends on the advocacy of Mr. Witkor Uspaskish . undoubtlly the coalition established form social democrats and labour party is a matter of course. Socialdemocrats, Labour Party, Law and Order of Ronald Paksas started conversation about the future ruling coalition. There is a great number of doubts that there is a lot of things which different s those political parties. The Labour Party is for the building of the nuclear power plant in Wisagin and social democrats and the Law and Order are against especially after the referendum where 33 percent of the citizens voted for and 62 against. On the other hand social democrats and the Law and Order are for progressive taxes and party of Wiktor Uspaskich is against.
The losers – populists.
About Bad luck might say followers of Ronald Paksas and Neringa Venckiene. The pre-electoral polls prognostic third place for The law and Order right after social democrats and Labour Party. The reality is different, the party of Paksas are on the fourth place and the conservatives are before them on the third place. Apparently The law and order needs to define its own political identity. The sympathy of voters for impeachmented president of Lithuania Mr. Roland Paksas are slowly ending and different banner the law and the order does not have. There is lack of ideological transparency in that party. From one side this party are trying to play in nationalist and populists mood and on the other hand the party is trying to be a mainstream constructive part of the parliament.
Those dilemmas do not touch New party Droga Odwagi which was established few months before elections. This party says about itself as anti-system one. Apparently the dilemma Is among the votes. Most of the voting ones has a sympathy for Venckiene but in re-electoral debates the leader of “kedofil” did really bad. She did not have any goods position about any important affairs happened in Lithuania. The ones who voted for Mrs. Neringa Venckiene made her part of the parliament but the results of Arunas Valinskas were better any purple one can only imagine about it. Right after the elections Venckiene could not hide her bitterness about the results. Right before the elections Mrs. Venckiene was very sure about getting 20,30 or even40 seats in the parliament. Apparently, she will have to be ok with 7-10 seats and there is no certainty about managing all of those seats it might happen that Mrs. Venckiene might migrate to other parties or fractions.
The crystallization of the liberals.
Unxpendently, Ruch Liberałow did good In this year elections. This party improved its results from 2008, despite the fact that this party was co-ruler during the 4 crisis years in Lithuania. As it is known in the votes of liberals were interested three political parties: Ruch Liberałów, Związek Liberałów and Centrum and Związek TAK (Sąjunga TAIP) of Artūras Zuokas. Center liberals did very poorly and Związek TAK lost. it might seen that the voters put the fat, big cross on the ambitions of the mehr of Vilnius. The Voters did not forget about the corruption affairs which is colligated with Zuokas and his runaway to Poland before the STT agents. Also, they did not forget about the wrong exchange of the tickets for public transport in Vilnius which was made right before the elections for Seym. It is also important to say that today’s Zuoaks does not have the same vigor than the Mehr of Vilnius from few years ago. This one does not have that charisma, ideas and does not make any changes in town. Vilnius is drawing in the debts, stagnation and the voters are seeing the reason of all that in a person of the mehr of the city.
Apparently, after those elections is possible to say the there is a process of crystallization among liberals –Ruch Liberalow. Around this political power are staying all of the liberals from Lithuania. Central Liberals and Zuokas will either join or leave the stage
The historical and waited victory of EAPL.
Everyone and me as well who are really interested in native minorities and its problems in Lithuania believed in outpassing the threshold of EAPL. Of course the announcements of tits leaders about 7.8.or even 10 percent of votes were typical pre-electoral game but the EAPL improved its results and will have its own fraction in the Seym, for the first time in few years. the success of the polish party combined two circumstances. Firstly, leader of EAPL mrs. Waldemar Tomaszewski rejected the hawkish rhetoric and he tried to find a compromise with Lithuanians. That made some of the Lithuanians, Poles, Russians vote for this party. The beliefs were moderates. Secondly, the idiotic politics made by the government of Andrius Kubilius in the fact of native minorities and especially the novelization of the educational act mobilized the voters of the party.
Moreover, EAPL Has a historical Chance to be a part of the future parliament. If the talks of social democrats and Labour Party with The order and Law will stop in one place there is a possible chance for the EAPL at least for the third place in the coalition. For that place for sure will be willing other parties. But the question is if the EAPL is going to take an advantaged of that? Both ways have big dangers: being a part of the parliament the party will have take all of the consequences of other parties from coalition and for the wrong decisions made. Also, the party will have to make a concession in the businesses of the native minorities. Does the electorate will not take those decision as betrayal? In addition Lithuanians media and politics really watched all deputies and minister from EAPL and graded all of the mistakes and this might recaptured on the popularity of the Party. on the other hand, staying in the opposition might be read by the same electoral as a contradiction of the work it has been made and it the next elections this miracle might not happen.
Outpassing the threshold by EAPL has shown misconception in the assumption made by liberal-conservatives government in the businesses of native minorities especially in a part about the education.
Earlier Lithuanian politics thought about some native minorities are protesting it just mean they do not know how good he republic of Lithuania is . But for now those politics will have to define its way of thinking about the native minority. For now it is not just some but 70 thousands of citizens who are disagreeing with that kind of politics. Outpassing the threshold by EAPL will for sure help to work on new and more liberal politics about native minorities does not matter if the EAPL is going to be a part of the ruling coalition or not.
The calamity of „Talibans”
And AT last but not east the results of the elections are showing total calamity of Lithuanian nationalists who were called by some Talibans. The coalition „Za Litwę na Litwie” of Gintarasa Songaily and some smaller Gropius who are feeding in some nationalists slogans ties with fylfot and anti-Semitism caricatures got the lowest number of votes which might be considered as an statistical error. Maybe that’s way some representatives of Talibans will get it seats in Parliament form the list of “Droga odwagi”, conservatives and form the firs-pass the post voting lists. There is a hope that there will be lower number of them and this mean not only the chance in new conversation between Poland and Lithuania but also between polish and Lithuanian citizens in Lithuania.
Tłumaczenie Karolina Przybyło w ramach praktyk w Europejskiej Fundacji Praw Człowieka, www.efhr.eu. Translated by Karolina Przybyło the framework of a traineeship programme of the European Foundation of Human Rights, www.efhr.eu.