- April 18, 2014
Election forecast of the political scientist Novagrockienė: Tomaszewski may spring a surprise
A presidential election will be held in three weeks. Both opinion polls and political observers’ forecasts show that the president will not be elected during the first round and that is why the second round will need to be held. The political scientist Jūratė Novagrockienė predicts that the second round may come as a surprise. She believes that a leader of the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania Waldemar Tomaszewski and not Zigmantas Balčytis is most likely to become a rival of Dalia Grybauskaitė who runs for office for the second time.
According to the political scientist Jūratė Novagrockienė, more people may vote for Tomaszewski since, as shown by the 2012 election to the Seimas or the opinion polls carried out before the election, the opinion polls do not include all of the Polish people, and the Polish and Russian people are those who vote mainly for this particular candidate.
The political scientist was convinced that the second election round will need to be held since all of the previously mentioned factors will lead to the fragmentation of electoral votes.
“The votes for two candidates need to be concentrated in order to enable two people to gather the highest percentage of votes. Nevertheless, I reckon the votes for different candidates will be fragmented and the second round is therefore very likely” – the political scientists said.
Z. Balčytis and A. Paulauskas are mentioned as an alternative for D. Grybauskaitė who was a new, unknown candidate and a strong leader during the 2009 election. However, today many people are disappointed in her. Despite the opinions of political observers and experts who predict D. Grybauskaitė and Z. Balčytis will compete against each other in the second round, J. Novagrockienė does not rule out the possibility that W. Tomaszewski might spring a surprise by his successful appearance.
“I simply believe there will be the second round of election and we do not know who is going to be the other candidate competing against D. Grybauskaitė. It will come as a surprise in a way if W. Tomaszewski and not Z. Balčytis becomes the other candidate” – the political scientist states.
According to some political commentators, we can expect that some part of Lithuanian electors who prize Tomaszewski’s honesty and the fact he follows Christian values, will also vote for him.
On March 21st-31st a market research and public opinion company
“Baltijos tyrimai” carried out an opinion poll at the request of ELTA news agency. According to the poll, 19 percent of respondents do not know who they will vote for or said they did not intend to take part in presidential election.
The political expert Lauras Bielinis believes the second round during this election is likely to be held, since D. Grybauskaitė is not as widely supported as she was during the previous election.
On the basis of EAPL Press Office information
Tłumaczenie by Martyna Kołtun w ramach praktyk w Europejskiej Fundacji Praw Człowieka, www.efhr.eu. Translated by Martyna Kołtun within the framework of a traineeship programme of the European Foundation of Human Rights, www.efhr.eu.