Radczenko: About the possible and impossible coalitions of the AWPL

There are possible and impossible coalitions. There are also coalitions condemned to fall and doomed to survive. The ones that are possible and which doomed to fall – do not depend on the statements of politicians, journalists and journalists, but from the political constellations.

Yesterday (26 July) two messages about the future of different coalitions circulated in Lithuania. First of all, LRT said that Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis had dealt with the president of AWPL-ZRR Waldemar Tomaszewski, and the Polish party probably promised to join the government of the “green peasants” instead of the social democrats whose departure from the ruling coalition seems to be only a matter of time. Secondly, the mayor of Vilnius Remigijus Šimašius announced that the Lithuanian capital’s libertarians would consider settling the coalition with the conservatives.

The ruler of Wilno puzzled the consternation of the conservatives, who together with councilors of the “Letters of Lithuania” and the opposition Lithuanian Freedom Union boycotted yesterday’s meeting of the Vilnius City Council. In the absence of a quorum, the council was unable to make the decision to allow accreditation as a long junior high school for three schools of national minorities: the Polish Junior High School. Adam Mickiewicz and the. Szymon Konarski and the Russian Primary School im. Alexander Pushkin. Taking into account that until the beginning of the school year and thus the end of the transitional education law, when schools were able to obtain accreditation, only one month remained – the chance that these schools would become so-called. Long gymnasium practically no longer exists. Regardless of what the media and politicians state, the AWPL-ZRR will not enter the government of Saulius Skvernelis, nor the Šimašius liberals will break the cooperation with the conservatives. So many requests. For those interested I can explain why, in my opinion, the conclusions are just such.

Ad coalition of Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens – AWPL-ZRR in the Sejm

This is not the case, of course, as the AWPL-ZRR says

“AWPL-ZChR are not interested in coalitions and the new quality in Lithuanian politics: honest, socially sensitive, based on Christian values ​​and traditional family”.

Only that the coalition is not interested in “green peasants”. The Lithuanian Peasants’ Union, although in a social and economic sense, is left on the political spectrum, is generally a conservative, conservative and nationalist party. For many of its members and electors, but also party elites – the official coalition with the national minority party is unthinkable. Besides, the “peasants of the peasants” have to resist the allegations of pro-Russianism, and the coalition with the party that has not reproached the Pro-Russian patches will only exacerbate media and right-wing attacks. On the other hand, the leaders of the AWPL-ZChR are well aware of the nationalist sentiments within the Karbauskis party. Coalition with the leaders of the Pistons for Lithuanian language would be difficult to sell, and voters, and Warsaw.

But the most important reason is that such a potential coalition would not even have a shaky majority in parliament. One more coalition would need one more. Or, Saulius Skvernelis, a social democrats scandal (only “Green Peasants” are able to remove at least 7 MPs from the LSDP), or scandalized with sex and corruption scandals of “Order and Justice” (even during the peasant election campaign) coalition with paxists).

It is therefore appropriate to agree with the authors of the AWPL-ZRR statement that

“The most realistic is the Minority Government of the Peasants’ Union.”

Supported by AWPL-ZChR. Especially since such a de facto government exists since December last year. As it is known, the Polish party has been wary of defending itself as an opposition and has been supporting the government in all major Sejm votes for six months. Where AWPL-ZRR recognizes its priorities

“A monthly payment of € 120 for each child, free medicines for 75-year-olds and seniors, lustration, taxation of banking assets”

And it does not accentuate the Polish postulates – such “fruitful” cooperation can last even until the end of the term. And perhaps it will even help to keep the Polish language at LEU.

Ad coalition of liberal-conservatives in Vilnius

“In the near future we will consider whether we will still be in the coalition with the conservatives”

The mayor of Vilnius Remigijus Šimašius said that because of the persecution of conservatives, yesterday there was again no passing vote on the status of a long junior high school for three minority educational institutions. Undoubtedly, the liberals will think about this question, but after deliberation, gnashing their teeth will remain in the coalition and with the conservatives, and with the nationalist “List of Lithuania.” Because there is no other coalition in Vilnius, and the power is too sweet to resign in the name of several Polish and Russian schools.

Šimašius relaxation can be understood. The local elections of 2019 are slowly approaching and if they want to become the second mayor of Vilnius, they will need the votes of national minorities. Especially that the Movement of Liberals is falling in Vilnius to the head and neck, and his constituency-Lithuanians take over conservatives massively. You can also understand why the Social Democrats were on the side of Polish and Russian schools. Fall of Liberals’ record – this is a historic opportunity to improve the LSDP in Vilnius. The Lithuanian nationalist electorate, of course, can not take over, but can effectively fight for the voices of young Poles and Russians who fell to Šimašius in 2015. And the AWPL-ZRR listing in Vilnius is shaking and some of its voters are looking for something new. And the renewed and rejuvenated Lithuanian left – it’s probably the most natural choice.

You can even understand the behavior of conservatives who refuse any concessions to Poles and Russians on education. The Vilnius conservatives – unlike the liberals and social democrats – do not seek Polish voices. On the contrary, they appeal only for the voices of the Lithuanians, and thus positioning themselves as ardent supporters of Lithuanian Vilnius, they simply pay off in the world. And it probably corresponds to the views of most factions.

What I can not understand – as I have already written – is the behavior of the Lithuanian Union of Freedom Artūras Zuokasa. Zuocasowcy, already during the local elections in 2015, showed themselves as a very nationalist party. At that time, however, this was translated into a fight with “propolis” Šimašius. After the elections, the opposition zuocasowcy reached a consensus with the AWPL-ZRR faction and were among the loudest critics of the reorganization of the network of minority schools in Vilnius. It turned out, however, that when this year finally managed to dismiss a part of this reorganization, convince and cooperate with the Vilnius liberals – the fraction of Artūras Zuokas immediately found a common language with the conservatives and has for months voted against any Polish postulates.

In this situation, cemetery silence in this case is considered by the Fraction of the Polish Lithuanian Freedom Union and its president, Zygmunt Klonowski, whose journal “Kurier Wileński” has specialized in stigmatizing all anti-Polish Lithuanian politicians (especially Remigijus Šimašius) for years. Zygmunt Klonowski, when he called his faction, explained that

“Zuokas is one of the Lithuanian politicians most favorably Polish”

And he foretold

“Taking care of the language, education and culture of the Poles.”

My opponents often remind me of my former membership in the Movement of Liberals. I was actually a member of this party in 2006-2012. However, I have always criticized MEPs and ministers of the Movement of the Liberals as soon as they struck the interests of the Polish community in Lithuania. I critically criticized, publicly criticized, and eventually left the party when it turned out that my criticism, my arguments to the party bosses do not speak. Because in my opinion, the point of view can not depend neither on the seat nor on the hope for future political dividend in future coalitions.