The support for the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance (AWPL-ZChR) increases steadily as indicated by the recent poll carried out by the “Baltijos tyrimai” company at the request of the news agency ELTA.
It is calculated that currently the poll support for the party amounts to nearly 6% or 4.5% when we are to include people who are not going to vote and who are undecided.
Within a month the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Christian Families Alliance recorded an increase in popularity by one-fourth.
It was conducted from 29th April to 10th May.
The support for the AWPL would be higher if Lithuania used the methods for measuring a party’s popularity that are used in other countries, for instance in Poland.
Polling organisations in Lithuania do not forecast the results of the AWPL and its leader Valdemar Tomaševski adequately. This is what is indicated by, among others, specificity of poll conducting in regions and specific attitude of people and entities instructing to carry the surveys out.
Before the last presidential election in 2014, polls had shown the support at the level of 1.1%, whereas Valdemar Tomaševski received 8.4% of votes.
In 2014 it had been forecasted that the support for the AWPL amounted to 2%, while the group gained 8% of votes, so four times more than the forecasts had predicted.
There is a huge gap between the poll support for the AWPL before the last local government election and the actual support from voters.
Taking into account that all of the polling organisations in Lithuania lower considerably the support ratings for the AWPL-ZChR and considering the stable dynamics of support for the party, it should be assumed that currently the group enjoys popularity at a two-digit number level.
||May 2016 (April 2016)|
|1.||Social Democratic Party||15.0 (19.7) percent|
|2.||Lithuanian Peasant and Greens Union||14.4 (10.4) percent|
|3.||Liberal Movement||11.7 (13.4) percent|
|4.||Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats||11.4 (10.6) percent|
|5.||Labour Party||9.1 (7.0) percent|
|6.||Order and Justice||6.9 (6.1) percent|
|7.||AWPL||4.5 (3.6) percent|
|8.||Lithuanian Freedom Union||2.1 (2.5) percent|
|9.||Lithuanian Green Party||0.5 (1.7) percent|
|10.||Other parties||0.1 (-) percent|
|11.||Sum of votes obtained by parties||75.7 (75.0) percent|
|12.||The not voting and undecided||24.3 (25.0) percent|
|13.||Sum of votes||100 percent|
Tłumaczenie by Karolina Katarzyńska w ramach praktyk w Europejskiej Fundacji Praw Człowieka, www.efhr.eu. Translated by Karolina Katarzyńska within the framework of a traineeship programme of the European Foundation of Human Rights, www.efhr.eu.